Update on Transfer Rumours

Arturo Vidal to Bayern Munich: 85 percent

After being linked to Arsenal and Real Madrid in previous weeks, Arturo Vidal appears to have finally found a new home. After four seasons in Serie A, the Chilean midfielder is heading back to the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich has reached an agreement with the player as well as Juventus (for €40 million, including bonuses) according to Gianluca Di Marzio.
Since Vidal recently turned 28 this would have likely been the last summer for Juventus to cash in. Bayern Munich were very close to signing Vidal back in 2011 when he played for Leverkusen and they're currently looking for a midfielder to replace Schweinsteiger. Juventus has some replacements on the squad in Roberto Pereyra, Stefano Sturaro and Kwadwo Asamoah, who could move back to the middle should Juve sign a new wing-back.

Axel Witsel to Chelsea: 35 percent

After three seasons in Russia, Witsel is ready for a new challenge. The former Benfica midfielder has been linked to numerous teams in recent weeks, including Chelsea who are looking for someone to rotate in with Cesc Fabregas and Nemanja Matic.Chelsea won't likely face competition from Juventus, who are focused on other targets even after the expected sale of Vidal, or Milan, who seem to have prioritized bolstering the defense at the moment. Abramovich's ties to Zenit's president Alexander Valeryevich could help facilitate a deal, as well as Witsel's desire to play in a league that would give him more exposure as he hits the prime of his career.
Witsel appears to be very well suited for the Premier League; his versatility would allow him to compliment either Fabregas or Matic. Few clubs can also ensure Zenit recoups their big investment in Witsel, just last week Milan was informed his price tag would be over 30 million euro.

Fernando Llorente to Real Madrid: 40 percent
Fernando Llorente to leave Juventus: 80 percent

Juventus have almost completely revamped their front line this summer by acquiring Paulo Dybala, Mario Mandzukic and Simone Zaza this summer. After Carlos Tevez rejoined Boca Juniors, Fernando Llorente will also likely leave Turin and Real Madrid have recently joined Monaco, Tottenham and Liverpool in the race for the Spanish striker.
Rafa Benitez was coaching in Italy during Llorente's two seasons at Juventus and is very familiar with what he can bring to the table. Real Madrid's new manager would like to bolster his depth upfront beyond Karim Benzema and Llorente could be a great option off the bench.
Juventus signed Llorente on a free transfer in 2013, meaning that a sale this summer would essentially represent pure profit. It remains to be seen if Llorente prefers an opportunity to be a starter in the Premier League or at Monaco instead of returning to Spain.

Arsenal landing Daniele Rugani: 5 percent
Arsenal landing Alessio Romagnoli: 35 percent

Wenger continues to look in Italy for the right defensive reinforcements. After contacting Roma about Kostas Manolas (a player the giallorossi don't want to sell), the Gunners are interested in the two starting center backs for Italy's current Under 21 team- Daniele Rugani and Alessio Romagnoli.
Rugani is coming off an excellent season at Empoli: he was only player in Serie A to appear in every minute of the season and also didn't receive a single yellow card. Juventus acquired the rest of his rights last January and have no intention of selling him considering their aging defense -- at present, Leonardo Bonucci is their only starting caliber centre-back under 31 on the squad.
Yet Roma would be willing to move Romagnoli, who is coming off a strong season on loan. Milan would like to reunite Romagnoli with new coach Sinisa Mihajlovic; the two were at Sampdoria together. Roma would prefer to sell him abroad rather than to a Serie A team that could contend with them for a Champions League spot. They'd been asking Milan for €30 million but it's possible they could sell him for less if it ensures a move overseas.
Romagnoli's value is enhanced by the fact he's a 21-year-old left-footed centre-back, which are fairly hard to find on the open market. But Arsenal need to be aware of competition from Chelsea. The Blues are in talks with Roma for Mohamed Salah, and Romagnoli could be part of any possible deal along with Filipe Luis.

Pedro to Chelsea: 40 percent

This has been a rather quiet transfer window for Chelsea so far, replacing Petr Cech with Asmir Begovic and bringing in Falcao on loan to add depth up front. Chelsea are now looking to make a big splash and Barcelona's Pedro would be a very good fit for Jose Mourinho's squad.
Pedro's playing time at Barca has been impacted tremendously by the arrival of Luis Suarez and now that he's 27, the Spaniard could be looking for a fresh start elsewhere. Pedro confirmed in a recent interview that his exit clause had been drastically reduced, a clear sign that Barcelona are willing to move him despite the transfer ban. There should be more developments after the club's presidential election on July 18.
Pedro's arrival could be further facilitated by the possible departure of Juan Cuadrado. The Colombian winger has struggled since joining Chelsea last January but still has numerous suitors in Italy. Juventus is even more determined to sign him now that Vidal is on his way to Bayern Munich; acquiring a wing player would allow them to move Asamoah back to his natural role in the middle.
Just like Chelsea are in competition with Arsenal for Romagnoli, the Blues need to be aware of Manchester United, who could go for Pedro as a potential replacement for Angel Di Maria should the Argentine head to Paris Saint-Germain.

Salah to Liverpool: 30 percent

Fiorentina and Chelsea continue to work on finding a resolution to the Salah drama. The Tuscan club paid Chelsea the fee to extend the loan deal and while Salah vetoed their request to keep him, the Italian federation does not recognize the clause that allows a player to stop loan agreements to be extended. (Fiorentina also claim that Inter tampered with the Egyptian player while he was under contract.)
Both Fiorentina and Chelsea want to avoid going to FIFA in search of a solution; as such, they're working on reaching an agreement. Fiorentina would like to ensure Chelsea don't send Salah to another Serie A team to end the dispute, which would certainly help Liverpool. But Roma could try to soften Fiorentina's stance by offering Mattia Destro (also linked to Aston Villa) as a replacement for Mario Gomez, who is close to joining to Besiktas. Roma could also drop out of the race for Augsburg left-back Baba, who could replace Filipe Luis at Chelsea; with these moves, Roma would give an incentive to both Chelsea and Fiorentina.
In any event, Liverpool could be a good destination for Salah. The Reds were close to signing him before he joined Chelsea and with Raheem Sterling now at Manchester City, they could use a replacement. But before signing the Egyptian winger, Liverpool would likely have to sell either Borini (linked to Lazio) or Mario Balotelli, who could return to Italy given that Christian Benteke is reportedly on his way. It remains to be seen if Liverpool can act quickly enough to beat Roma in the race for Salah.

Mesut Ozil to Juventus: 5 percent

Considering Juventus has some players to replace Vidal already on the squad, they are likely to go for an offensive midfielder as their next acquisition. The Italian club is also looking for a player to take over the number 10 jersey vacated by Tevez, something their new sponsor Adidas (and manager, Massimiliano Allegri) is certainly pushing for.
There have been reports of Juventus being interested in Arsenal's Ozil: Sami Khedira was even asked about them at his introductory press conference earlier this week but he stated he hadn't spoken to Ozil about joining Juve. But Ozil does not fit Juve's financial parameters (especially his wages) even after the windfall from the Vidal sale. This line of thinking also applies to Oscar and Mario Gotze.
Juventus is more likely to go for a player like Julian Draxler. The Schalke midfielder has an expensive release clause but since he's coming off an injury plagued season, Juventus could get him for under €30 million and his wages would be much lower than a player like Ozil.